溶栓后出血转化模型联合外周血中性粒细胞 与淋巴细胞比值对未溶栓治疗急性脑梗死 出血转化的预测价值
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国家卫健委脑防委“中国脑中卒高危人群干预适宜技术研究及推广项目”(GN-2018R0009)


The predictive value of HAT model combined with peripheral blood neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio for hemorrhagic transformation in acute cerebral infarction
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    摘要:

    目的 探讨溶栓后出血转化(HAT)模型联合外周血中性粒细胞 / 淋巴细胞比值(NLR)对 急性脑梗死(ACI)出血转化的预测价值及意义。方法 前瞻性收集 2018 年 5 月至 2019 年 4 月发病 24 h 内入诊徐州医科大学附属医院神经内科并在本院完成首次颅脑 CT 及采血的 433 例 ACI 患者,对其进 行回顾性分析,根据是否发生出血转化分为非出血转化组(NHT 组)和出血转化组(HT 组)。收集并单 因素分析两组患者的一般临床资料,包括人口统计学基本资料(年龄、性别)、血管危险因素(吸烟、饮 酒、高血压病、糖尿病、心房颤动)、血压(基线收缩压、基线舒张压)、基线美国国立卫生研究院卒中量表 (NIHSS)评分、急性卒中 Org 10172 治疗试验(TOAST)分型以及实验室检查结果如白细胞计数、中性粒 细胞计数、淋巴细胞计数、NLR、基线血糖以及 CT 早期梗死面积等。采用多因素 Logistic 逐步回归分析 法探索影响非溶栓治疗的 ACI 患者出血转化的相关因素,并应用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析 HAT 模型(包括患者既往糖尿病史或基线血糖、CT早期梗死面积、NIHSS评分 3项因素)联合外周血NLR对非溶 栓ACI出血转化的预测作用。结果 433例急性脑梗死患者中,77例(17.8%,HT组)出现出血转化,NHT组 356例。HT 组入院时基线收缩压、心房颤动病史占比、白细胞计数、中性粒细胞计数、NLR、基线血糖、 基线 NIHSS 评分均高于 NHT 组,淋巴细胞计数低于 NHT 组,差异均有统计学意义(均P< 0.01);CT 早期 梗死面积及 TOAST 分型、HAT 模型评分两组间差异均有统计学意义(均P< 0.01),余因素组间差异均 无统计学意义(均P> 0.05)。多因素 Logistic 回归分析显示,NLR(OR=1.23,95%CI=1.12~1.34)、基线血 糖(OR=1.18,95%CI=1.04~1.33)、基线 NIHSS 评分(OR=1.04,95%CI=1.00~1.08)、基线收缩压(OR=1.02, 95%CI=1.01~1.04)、CT 早期梗死面积(OR=2.41,95%CI=1.38~4.22)增加以及心源性卒中均是出血转化 的独立危险因素(均P< 0.05)。ROC 曲线分析结果显示,HAT 模型联合 NLR 的截断值为 1.50 时,预测 ACI 出血转化的敏感度为 83.1%,特异度为 62.4%,ROC 曲线下面积为 0.81(95%CI=0.75~0.86,P< 0.05)。 结论 NLR 及 HAT 模型的组成因素基线血糖、基线 NIHSS 评分及 CT 早期梗死面积越大,出血转化风险 越大,HAT 模型联合 NLR 对未溶栓治疗 ACI 患者出血转化的发生具有一定的预测价值。

    Abstract:

    Objective To explore the predictive value and significance of hemorrhage after thrombolysis (HAT) model combined with peripheral blood neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in the hemorrhage transformation (HT) of acute cerebral infarction (ACI). Methods Clinical data of 433 patients with ACI who were admitted to the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from May 2018 to April 2019 were collected and analyzed retrospectively. On the basis of hemorrhage transformation during hospitalization, all the participants were divided into two groups, non-hemorrhagic transformation group (NHT group) and hemorrhagic transformation group (HT group). The general clinical data of the two groups were collected and analyzed by single factor analysis, including demographic basic data (age, gender), vascular risk factors (smoking, drinking, hypertension, diabetes, atrial fibrillation), blood pressure (baseline systolic pressure, baseline diastolic pressure), baseline NIHSS score, trail of Org 10172 in acute stroke treatment trial (TOAST) typing and laboratory test results, such as leukocyte count, neutrophil count, lymphocyte count, NLR, baseline blood glucose and CT early infarct area. The NLR, HAT model score and other clinical data were compared between the two groups. Multiple logistic stepwise regression analysis was used to compare the related factors of hemorrhage transformation in patients with ACI who were not treated with thrombolysis, and ROC curve was used to analyze the predictive effect of HAT model (including three factors of patients' previous diabetes history or baseline blood glucose, CT early infarct area and NIHSS score) combined with peripheral blood NLR on hemorrhage transformation in patients with ACI who were not treated with thrombolysis. Results A total of 433 patients were included, among that 77 patients in the HT group, counted for 17.8%. The other 356 patients were in the NHT group. The baseline systolic blood pressure, history of atrial fibrillation, leukocyte count, neutrophil count, NLR, baseline blood glucose and NIHSS scores of HT group were higher than those of NHT group, while the lymphocyte count was lower than that of NHT group (P < 0.01). There were significant differences in the early infarct area, TOAST classification and HAT model score between the two groups (P < 0.01), and there was no significant difference in the other factors (P> 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that NLR (OR=1.23, 95%CI=1.12-1.34), baseline blood glucose (OR=1.18, 95%CI=1.04-1.33), baseline national institute of health stroke scale (NIHSS) score (OR=1.04, 95%CI=1.00-1.08), baseline systolic blood pressure (OR=1.02, 95%CI=1.01-1.04), early infarct volume of CT (OR=2.41, 95%CI=1.38-4.22), and cardiogenic stroke were all independent risk factors of HT (P< 0.05). ROC curve analysis showed the optimal cut-off value of HAT model score combined with NLR was 1.50, the sensitivity and specificity were 83.10% and 62.40% respectively, and the area under ROC curve was 0.81 (95%CI=0.75-0.86,P < 0.05). Conclusions The greater the NLR, baseline blood glucose, baseline NIHSS and early infarct area in CT, the greater the risk of HT. The HAT model score combined with NLR can be used as a predictor of HT in ACI patients without Intravenous thrombolytic therapy.

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马爽 牟英峰 王丽 吕金峰 王子鹏 王伟 耿德勤.溶栓后出血转化模型联合外周血中性粒细胞 与淋巴细胞比值对未溶栓治疗急性脑梗死 出血转化的预测价值[J].神经疾病与精神卫生,2019,19(11):
DOI ::10.3969/j. issn.1009-6574.2019.11.004.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-03-12