急性缺血性脑卒中相关性肺炎的危险因素分析 及预测评分模型构建
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Analysis of risk factors of acute ischemic stroke-associated pneumonia and construction of its predictive scoring model
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    摘要:

    目的 探讨急性缺血性脑卒中相关性肺炎(SAP)的危险因素并构建其预测评分模型。 方法 回顾性连续纳入2020 年1—5 月徐州医科大学附属医院神经内科收治的急性缺血性脑卒中患 者212 例(均为发病后24 h 内入院),其中SAP 36 例,非SAP 176 例,SAP 发生率17.0%。通过医院病案 系统收集其临床资料及数据。采用单因素分析和多因素Logistic 回归分析得到各项独立危险因素,根 据其各自的回归系数分别给予赋值,建立急性缺血性脑卒中的患者预测其SAP发生的评分模型(新 SAP评分模型)。使用建立的新SAP评分模型对入组的所有病例进行评分,并将发生急性缺血性脑卒 中并发SAP的患者作为终点,利用SPSS 软件绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评价该预测评分模型的 敏感度与特异度。结果 (1)单因素分析结果显示,SAP组与非SAP组患者年龄、牛津郡社区脑卒中计 划(OCSP)分型、卒中前改良Rankin 量表(mRS)评分、Glasgow 昏迷量表(GCS)评分、美国国立卫生研究 院卒中量表(NIHSS)评分、心房颤动、心力衰竭、吞咽困难以及白蛋白、空腹血糖、白细胞计数、中性粒 细胞计数、淋巴细胞计数、中性粒细胞/ 淋巴细胞计数比值(NLR)差异均有统计学意义(均P < 0.05)。 (2)多因素Logistic 回归分析结果显示, NIHSS 评分≥ 16 分(OR=18.380,95%CI:1.066~317.057)、心力衰 竭(OR=24.371,95%CI:2.358~251.878)、吞咽困难(OR=54.383,95%CI:6.503~454.760)及NLR > 6.82 (OR=310.779,95%CI:37.176~2 598.024)为急性缺血性脑卒中患者发生SAP 的危险因素(均P < 0.05)。 (3)构建的新SAP评分模型,该模型包括4个项目,即NIHSS评分(≥16分=1分;<16分=0分)、心力衰竭(是= 1分;否=0 分)、吞咽困难(是=1.5 分;否=0分)和NLR(> 6.82=2 分;≤ 6.82=0 分)。ROC 曲线下面积(AUC) 为0.966(95%CI:0.921~1.000,P< 0.05),该ROC 曲线所对应的最佳诊断界值为1.25 分,对应的敏感度 为 91.7%,特异度为99.6%。结论 NIHSS 评分≥ 16 分、心力衰竭、吞咽困难及NLR > 6.82 是急性缺血 性脑卒中患者(发病24 h 之内)发生SAP的独立危险因素。构建的新SAP评分模型预测急性缺血性脑卒 中患者(发病24 h 之内)的SAP发生有较高准确性。当评分≥1.25 分时,需警惕SAP发生的可能性较大。

    Abstract:

    Objective To explore the risk factors of acute ischemic stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) and try to construct its predictive scoring model. Methods A total of 212 patients with acute ischemic strokeadmitted to the Neurology Department of the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from January 2020 to May 2020 were retrospectively enrolled( all patients were admitted within 24 hours after onset), including 36 cases of SAP and 176 cases of non-SAP. The incidence rate of SAP was 17.0%. The clinical data were collected through the hospital medical record system. Univariate analysis was carried out firstly, and then multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to obtain the independent risk factors. According to their respective regression coefficients, scoring model was established for patients with acute ischemic stroke to predict the occurrence of SAP( a new SAP scoring model). By using the established new SAP scoring model, all the patients were scored, and the patients with acute ischemic stroke complicated with SAP were treated as the endpoint. The receiver operator characteristic( ROC) curve was drawn by SPSS software to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of this predictive scoring model. Results (1) Univariate analysis results showedthatthere were statistically significant differences between SAP group and non-SAP groups in age, OCSP classification, prestroke mRS score, GCS score, NIHSS score, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, dysphagia, albumin, fasting blood glucose, leukocyte count, neutrophil count, lymphocyte count, and NLR( all P<0.05).( 2)Multivariate Logistic regression analysis results showed that NIHSS score≥16( OR=18.380, 95%CI:1.066-317.057), heart failure(OR=24.371, 95%CI:2.358-251.878),dysphagia(OR=54.383,95%CI:6.503-454.760), and NLR > 6.82(OR=310.779, 95%CI:37.176-2 598.024)werethe risk factors of SAP for patients with acute ischemic stroke( all P<0.05)(. 3) The new SAP scoring model included four items: NIHSS score( ≥16 scores 1;<16 scores 0), heart failure( yes=1; no=0), dysphagia( yes=1.5; no=0) and NLR( >6.82 scores 2; ≤ 6.82 scores 0). The area under the plotted ROC curve( AUC) was 0.966( 95%CI: 0.921-1.000, P< 0.05). The diagnostic boundary value corresponding to the curve was 1.25 points, corresponding sensitivity was 91.7% and specificity was 99.6%. Conclusions NIHSS score ≥ 16, heart failure, dysphagia, and NLR > 6.82 were independent risk factors of SAP for patients with acute ischemic stroke( within 24 hours of onset). The established new SAP scoring model for patients with acute ischemic stroke( within 24 hours of onset) has high accuracy in predicting their SAP occurrence. When the score ≥ 1.25 points, SAP may be alert to occur.

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杨冬冬 张尊胜.急性缺血性脑卒中相关性肺炎的危险因素分析 及预测评分模型构建[J].神经疾病与精神卫生,2021,21(2):
DOI :10.3969/j. issn.1009-6574.2021.02.009.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-03-29