基于脑脊液游离脂肪酸的列线图模型在急性缺血性脑卒中伴意识障碍患者预后判断中的价值
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山东省医药卫生科技发展计划项目 (2017WS137)


The value of a nomogram model based on cerebrospinal fluid free fatty acids on the prognosis of patients with acute ischemic stroke and consciousness disorders
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    摘要:

    目的 构建基于脑脊液游离脂肪酸(FFA)预测急性缺血性脑卒中(AIS)伴意识障碍患者 预后的列线图模型。方法 选取 2019 年 6 月至 2022 年 12 月济南市人民医院收治的 132 例 AIS 伴意识 障碍患者为研究对象。根据出院后第 90 天门诊随访时的改良 Rankin 量表评分将患者分为预后不良组 (得分 4~6 分)和预后良好组(得分 0~3 分),比较两组患者的临床资料。采用多因素 Logistic 回归分析 影响 AIS 伴意识障碍患者预后不良的危险因素并构建列线图模型,采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、 一致性指数(C-index)和校正曲线评价列线图模型的诊断效能。结果 预后不良组有 39 例患者,预后 良好组有 93 例患者,两组患者的年龄[(69.12±9.66)比(60.34±8.27)岁]、有高血压病史比例[82.1% (32/39)比 64.5%(60/93)]、发病至入院时间[(6.87±2.31)比(4.14±1.21)h]、超敏 C 反应蛋白[(8.02±2.27) 比(4.37±1.78)mg/L]、神经元特异性烯醇化酶(NSE)[(14.28±3.67)比(10.24±4.03)ng/mL]和脑脊液 FFA 水平[(0.39±0.09)比(0.22±0.07)mol/L]比较,差异均有统计学意义(均P< 0.05)。多因素 Logistic 回归分析结果显示,AIS 伴意识障碍患者入院时脑脊液 FFA 高(OR=1.062,95%CI:1.034~1.090)、年龄 大(OR=1.113,95%CI:1.002~1.237)、发 病 至 入 院 时 间 长(OR=3.118,95%CI:1.413~6.881)及 NSE 高 (OR=1.651,95%CI:1.122~2.430)均是预后不良的危险因素(均P< 0.05)。上述变量预测 AIS 伴意识障 碍患者预后不良的曲线下面积分别为 0.888、0.634、0.786 和 0.798,最佳截断值分别为 0.315 mol/L、71 岁、 6 h 及 10 ng/mL。列线图模型 ROC 曲线分析结果显示,C-index 为 0.955,校正曲线显示该模型具有良好 的区分度及一致性。结论 AIS 伴意识障碍患者的脑脊液 FFA 水平、血清 NSE 水平、年龄及发病至入院 时间与不良预后密切相关,基于此构建的列线图模型有较高的诊断效能。

    Abstract:

    Objective Construction of a nomogram model based on cerebrospinal fluid free fatty acids (FFA) to predict prognosis in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and impaired consciousness. Methods From June 2019 to December 2022, 132 AIS patients with consciousness disorders admitted to Jinan City People's Hospital were selected as the research subject. According to the Modified Rankin Scale score during outpatient follow-up on the 90th day after discharge, patients were divided into a poor prognosis group (score 4 to 6 points) and a good prognosis group (score 0 to 3 points), and the clinical data of the two groups of patients were compared. Multivariate Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors affecting poor prognosis in AIS patients with consciousness disorders and establish a nomogram model. The diagnostic performance of the nomogram model was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, C-index, and calibration curve. Results There were 39 patients in the poor prognosis group and 93 patients in the good prognosis group The age [(69.12±9.66) vs (60.34±8.27) years], proportion of hypertension history [82.1% (32/39) vs 64.5% (60/93)], time from onset to admission [(6.87±2.31) vs (4.14±1.21) h], hypersensitive C-reactive protein [(8.02±2.27) vs (4.37±1.78)mg/L], neuron-specific enolase [(14.28±3.67) vs (10.24±4.03) ng/mL], and cerebrospinal fluid FFA levels [(0.39±0.09) vs (0.22±0.07) mol/L] of the two groups of patients were compared, and the differences were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that elevated cerebrospinal fluid FFA on admission [OR=1.062, 95%CI (1.034, 1.090)], increased age [OR=1.113, 95%CI (1.002, 1.237)], prolonged time from onset to admission [OR=3.118, 95%CI (1.413, 6.881)], and elevated NSE [OR=1.651, 95%CI (1.122, 2.430)] were risk factors for poor prognosis in AIS patients with consciousness disorders, and the differences were statistically significant (all P<0.05). The area under the curve for predicting poor prognosis in AIS patients with consciousness disorders using the above variables was 0.888, 0.634, 0.786, and 0.798, respectively, and the optimal cut-off values were 0.315 mol/L, 71 years old, 6 h, and 10 ng/mL, respectively. The ROC curve analysis of the nomogram model showed that the C-index was 0.955, and the calibration curve indicated that the model had good discrimination and consistency. Conclusions The cerebrospinal fluid FFA level, serum NSE level, age, and time from onset to admission are closely related to poor prognosis in AIS patients with consciousness disorders. The nomogram model constructed has high diagnostic performance.

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房东东,孙燕洁,刘亮,李学军,段崇浩,杨逢永.基于脑脊液游离脂肪酸的列线图模型在急性缺血性脑卒中伴意识障碍患者预后判断中的价值[J].神经疾病与精神卫生,2024,24(1):
DOI :10.3969/j. issn.1009-6574.2024.01.002.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-02-01