载脂蛋白B对急性脑梗死患者颅内动脉狭窄的预测价值分析
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山东省重点研发计划 (2019GSF108033)


Predictive value of apolipoprotein B in intracranial artery stenosis in patients with acute cerebral infarction
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    摘要:

    目的 研究载脂蛋白 B(ApoB)对急性脑梗死(ACI)患者颅内动脉狭窄的预测价值。 方法 回顾性收集2021年8月1日—2023年12月1日于山东省千佛山医院神经内科住院治疗的391例 ACI 患者的临床资料,根据颅内动脉狭窄程度将患者分为轻度狭窄组(n=223)、中度狭窄组(n=89)、重 度狭窄组(n=79)。采用有序和二元 Logistic 回归分析颅内动脉狭窄程度的影响因素。建立模型列线 图,绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、校准曲线、临床影响曲线(CIC)、决策曲线分析(DCA)进行模型 预测效能的评估。采用净重新分类指数(NRI)和综合判别改善指数(IDI)进行不同预测模型的比较。 结果 轻、中、重度狭窄组患者高血压占比、糖尿病占比、高脂血症占比、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇、总胆固 醇、甘油三酯、ApoA1、ApoB 水平比较,差异均有统计学意义(均P< 0.05)。有序多因素 Logistic 回归分 析显示,ApoB 是 ACI 患者颅内动脉狭窄程度增加的独立危险因素(OR=10.350,95%CI:3.466~30.939, P< 0.001)。二元多因素 Logistic 回归分析显示,ApoB 分别与中度(OR=8.236,95%CI:2.378~28.528, P< 0.001)和重度狭窄(OR=7.702,95%CI:2.122~28.633,P< 0.05)独立相关。中重度狭窄组患者糖尿 病与高脂血症的伴发率、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇、总胆固醇、甘油三酯、ApoB 水平均高于轻度狭窄组,差 异均有统计学意义(均P< 0.001)。二元多因素 Logistic 回归分析结果显示,ApoB 是 ACI 患者颅内动脉 中重度狭窄的独立危险因素(OR=21.417,95%CI:6.052~73.887,P< 0.001)。将 ApoB 引入传统模型, 绘制新型模型的列线图。ROC 曲线显示,新型模型(AUC=0.702,敏感度 =47.60%,特异度 =87.00%)的 预测价值要优于传统模型(AUC=0.660,敏感度 =45.80%,特异度 =82.10%)。校准曲线提示 2 种预测模型 的预测校准曲线与标准曲线吻合度较高。DCA 及 CIC 表明新型模型的临床净收益率要优于传统预测 模型。新型模型相较于传统模型,NRI 及 IDI 均有提高(NRI=0.455,P< 0.001;IDI=0.060,P< 0.001)。 结论 ApoB 可能作为 ACI 患者颅内动脉狭窄的预测指标,为 ACI 患者早期病情评估提供依据。

    Abstract:

    Objective To investigate the predictive value of apolipoprotein B (ApoB) for intracranial arterial stenosis in patients with acute cerebral infarction (ACI). Methods Clinical data of 391 patients with ACI in the Department of Neurology, Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, from August 1, 2021 to December 1, 2023 were retrospectively collected. Patients were categorized according to the degree of intracranial artery stenosis into mild stenosis group (n=223), moderate stenosis group (n=89), and severe stenosis group (n=79). Factors influencing the degree of intracranial arterial stenosis were analyzed using ordered and binary Logistic regression. The assessment of model predictive efficacy was performed by building model nomogram, plotting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, clinical impact curve (CIC), and decision curve analysis (DCA). Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI) were used for the comparison of different predictive models. Results There were statistically significant differences in the proportions of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, as well as the levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol, triglyceride, ApoA1, and ApoB among the patients in the mild, moderate, and severe stenosis groups (all P < 0.05). Ordered multifactorial Logistic regression analysis showed that ApoB was an independent risk factor for increased intracranial arterial stenosis in ACI patients [OR=10.350, 95%CI (3.466,30.939),P < 0.001]. Binary multifactorial Logistic regression analysis showed that ApoB was independently associated with moderate stenosis [OR=8.236, 95%CI (2.378,28.528), P< 0.001) and severe stenosis [OR=7.702, 95%CI (2.122, 28.633), P< 0.05], respectively. The concomitant rates of diabetes mellitus and hyperlipidemia, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol, triglyceride, and ApoB levels of patients in moderate and severe stenosis group were higher than those in mild stenosis group, and the differences were all statistically significant (all P<0.001). Binary multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that ApoB was an independent risk factor for moderate and severe stenosis of intracranial arteries in patients with ACI [OR=21.417, 95%CI (6.052,73.887), P < 0.001]. ApoB was introduced into the traditional model to plot the nomogram of the new model. ROC curve showed that the predictive value of the new model (AUC=0.702, sensitivity=47.60%, specificity=87.00%) was better than that of the traditional model (AUC=0.660, sensitivity=45.80%, specificity=82.10%). Calibration curves suggested that the predictive calibration curves of the two predictive models were in good agreement with the standard curve. DCA and CIC curves indicated that the net clinical yield of the new model was better than that of the traditional model. NRI and IDI of the new model were improved compared to the traditional model (NRI=0.455, P< 0.001; IDI=0.060, P< 0.001). Conclusions ApoB may serve as a predictor of intracranial arterial stenosis in patients with ACI and provide a basis for early disease assessment in patients with ACI.

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孙兆远,司志华,王爱华.载脂蛋白B对急性脑梗死患者颅内动脉狭窄的预测价值分析[J].神经疾病与精神卫生,2025,25(2):123-130
DOI :10.3969/j. issn.1009-6574.2025.02.008.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-02-27